Pandemic and recession business.
Everyone, including myself, is feeling the pandemic and resulting recession in very extreme ways. Here are some thoughts on what you can do now, in future and in general to be more resilient to stark changes in the business environment.
“So, how do you survive and thrive in a pandemic followed by a recession?”
What can you do now?
There are in essence 4 different things businesses can do when it comes to hard times like now and likely the short to medium-term future.
Enjoy the loot?
If you are fortunate enough to have products and services that increase in demand during a pandemic like this, enjoy the benefits. BUT don’t forget others are quickly joining the party and want some of your loot.
Change/improve.
If you are suffering you have no choice but to adapt and change. It might not be too late to turn things around in the short-term to meet the new challenges with updated product and services offerings. Innovation is key.
Shut down.
Some business models just won’t survive. If you are, and you have to be brutally honest, in this category you might want to consider cutting your losses and start focusing your energy and funds on something that has more chances.
Startup.
Whether or not you have a business, downturns have the upside of always being followed by upturns. Now is the time to prepare and focus your efforts on being ready to do business when things pick up.
There are undoubtedly more nuanced views and choices available, but these are the ones I chose to focus on in this post. Stay tuned.
Companies I know well.
I have clients and know companies in many different industries and their fortunes are very different at this time, none are 100% good, but equally none are 100% bad … yet. To protect their proprietary business matters, I won’t be revealing any information that might identify them.
Company A: This business was partially hit by the pandemic and partially benefited from increased online ordering. They pivoted in a way that eliminated the part of the business that suffered and doubled down on the part of the business that had gained traction … online. This has the huge advantage of likely being successful for however long the pandemic lasts. A risk is that the recession will make their online arm suffer more under a recession but it is unlikely a recession will cause them to fail completely. Competitors and opportunity seekers have taken notice.
Company B: After the recession 10 years ago hit the business hard a lot of effort went into building the business up to very respectable levels. However the pandemic very quickly had a strong negative effect on their business model and pipeline. Their challenge now is to continue with the same business model but with a much increased online component, and that, apart from being reasonably hard to do in general, takes time. Finding and exploring new paths to revenue will be required.
Company C: This company initially had no issues with the lockdown but their clients seem to have made changes that are now, after 6 months of the pandemic wreaking havoc business now has slowed to a trickle. It is uncertain when and whether business will ever return to normal in this very new and changed world. Their focus on business via long-standing personal relationships has to expand online to gain new opportunities.
Company D: After a slow period when lockdown started foreign investment caused the need for this company’s services to be in higher demand than before the pandemic, a recession is unlikely to change that. Essential services will always be essential.
Company E: This company was extremely hard hit by the lockdown, however financial commitments of the company make it “too big to let die”, so they will with funding and support maintain a low profile until things return to normal and then resume as if a timewarp had happened.
Company F: This business decided to join in on the frenzy and hype that accompanies certain aspects and audiences of a pandemic. The products now on offer are in high demand and everything is working well. It is however a niche business and will have to find ways to migrate its product line to new focus areas when the pandemic is over. A recession will likely not hit this business harder as it (the recession) will in itself provide new opportunities at a price point even a recession can sustain.
I could keep going on, but one thing is already clear from this list: fortunes will vary, changes are happening and more will be needed, if the changes are not possible cessation of business is a good option, and new business models will arise and succeed.
“[We need to build more resilience into businesses.]”
Dr Walther commented that this post, upon initial publishing/review, reminded him of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s concept of “anti-fragility”, so I thought it would be good to add some related videos here.
How to pandemic/recession proof your business?
“Using Zoom is not innovation! Using mmhmm might be.”
It is not enough to have started using Zoom! You need to fundamentally transform your business. If you can, produce world-class innovative products and services. Think “what would it take for me to be the Elon Musk of my industry?”. Be better, faster and smarter than your competitors.
If this pandemic hit you hard and you were around in the recession 10 years ago, you need to learn the same lesson again, but this time you need to come to different/additional conclusions.
“No matter how successful your recovery from the past recession was, it was not a future-proofed recovery.”
I offer digital solutions.
Not every business will benefit from a more digital approach as much as others, but not trying, not changing, not improving leads to inevitable doom.
Use downturns as impetus for change and betterment! No matter what the future holds, you want to be able to:
Change and become more resilient to changes in your current revenue streams by opening up more of the world to your expanded set of improved products and services.
Use recessions/pandemics/disasters to be ready for when things get better.
Be prepared for the next major challenge to your business model by being more adaptable, more prepared and more diversified.
Gain new audiences in even younger age groups. Why are you not on TikTok?
Start making money while you sleep.
Assess risks (even low probability ones) and be prepared, the world is seemingly getting more and more nuts.
… “infinitely” many more points available on demand.
“How far are you progressed on AI? Can you be hacked? ... there is more!”
My services.
To narrow the focus down even more, here are the areas my digital business services focus on at a various levels:
Digital business consulting … online brand presence and reputation, digital strategy, artificial intelligence, digital innovation, automated operations, security.
Advanced search engine optimisation (SEO) and advanced Google Ads.
Social media automation.
Conversion rate optimisation (CRO).
I hope some of what I wrote here resonates with you. I’d love to be part of making your business handle the pandemic better, deal with the resulting recession optimally and make sure future business hits, like being hacked, do not occur.
Addendum.
I wanted to add one more very poignant quote of Dr Walther here:
“[We live in a VUCA-World after all.]”
VUCA stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. It describes the situation of constant, unpredictable change that is now the norm in certain industries and areas of the business world.
